A Potential Sectarian War
As the deadline to the nuclear talks approaching, Iran is desperate to move forward with its nuclear plans and an end to the sanction. But it might not be bale to get both, thus, it seems, regional expansion is the other option.
Arab analysts and leaders are focussed on how Tehran is working unconstrained to tighten its grip on Arab states, from Iraq to Lebanon, and Syria to Yemen. The man behind Iranian aggression to create a new Persian and Shi'ite "empire" on Arab land is Major General Qassem Soleimani, commander of the al-Quds brigade of the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
He is seen directing operations in the battle to recapture from IS the Sunni city of Tikrit, the birthplace of Saddam Hussein and taking Tikrit will be a victory for his designs. The US in its foreign policy is caught between a terrorist organisation and a terrorist state.
What will come next could be an all out sectarian war in the region. The heterodox Shi'ite Houthi movement in Yemen has seized power in the capital, Sanaa, with the Iranian regime support.
Unless it is nipped in the bud, Iran will continued to flap its arms and legs to keep its fundamentalist ideology alive.
This month, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry assured Saudi leaders there would be no “grand bargain” with Tehran attached to any deal.
Yet, in the news conference at which Kerry acknowledged that Soleimani was involved in Tikrit, his host, Saudi foreign minister Saud al-Faisal, was appalled. “The situation in Tikrit is a prime example of what we’re worried about,” said Prince Saud. “Iran is taking over Iraq.
The Gulf States see the U.S.-Iran rapprochement as having dire consequences on regional security.
Sultan al-Qassemi, a commentator in the United Arab Emirates has been quoted saying says: “The Iranian deal is a game-changer for the region and I think it is going to encourage Iran to pursue an even more assertive foreign policy. This deal is the grand bargain Kerry is denying it is. It is giving Iran carte blanche in exchange for empty promises."
Riad Kahwaji, head of the Dubai-based INEGMA think tank, warned of “all-out sectarian war” between Sunnis and Shi'ites.
The U.S. seems to be making a hash of things, and the motives of the Obama Administration are unclear. The Iranian government is vocally anti-American, and appeasement will only last a very short while.
"Obama believes that reaching a nuclear deal with Iran could be his foreign policy legacy. The Americans are not looking at the deal with Iran in terms of its regional impact," said Fawaz Gerges, Middle East expert at the London School of Economics.
The Saudis and their allies have backed Sunni forces, including rebels fighting to topple Assad. Riyadh formally backs mainstream rebels in this increasingly Sunni-Shi'ite stand-off, but support from Persian Gulf states and nationals is believed to have reached jihadi groups. Both sides will come to blows and have the means to, and this must be avoided at all costs.
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